China's economic ascent to overtake the US is severely jeopardized by its 1979 One Child Policy, which has caused a demographic crisis, plummeting birth rates, and an aging population, undermining its long-term growth prospects.
China's economy, once projected to surpass the US within years, may now never achieve that milestone, largely due to the devastating impact of its 47-year-old One Child Policy. According to demographer Yi Fuxian, the policy has led to plummeting birth rates and a rapidly shrinking population, erasing the country's pre-pandemic 6%+ annual growth. Official Chinese population and birthrate figures have been systematically inflated for decades, with Yi calculating the true 2020 population to be under 1.28 billion, at least 130 million lower than reported. India, for instance, surpassed China as the world's most populous nation years earlier than officially recognized. China's population likely began shrinking in 2018, much earlier than Goldman Sachs' 2022 estimate or official projections. While the policy was relaxed to two and then three children, China's total fertility rate remains critically low at an estimated 0.8 births per woman, leading to a record low of 8 million live births last year. This demographic shift, combined with economic reforms that curtailed household disposable income, severely crippled domestic consumption. To compensate, China became overly reliant on manufacturing exports, an unsustainable real estate bubble, and state-subsidized industrial overcapacity. The country is now one of the oldest globally, with a shrinking labor pool and a median age projected to reach 59 by 2050. This means China risks a long-term economic deceleration and may lag behind the US across major demographic and growth metrics by 2029-2035. Furthermore, this aging, risk-averse population is less likely to drive political activism for democracy, instead favoring a centralized strongman for stability.
